Statistically Mitigating Subjective Estimates with PERT and Montecarlo

This paper introduces a methodology for advanced project duration estimation, integrating the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) with Monte Carlo simulation. It employs various distributions — normal and beta — to enhance the accuracy of task duration modeling based on initial three-point estimates. This aproach refines these distributions, establishing a robust mode while maintaining a consistent 90th- percentile confidence level. The study illustrates the feasibility of the implementation using accessible tools i.e., Google Sheets and Power BI, ensuring practicality in project management. The conclusion underscores improved accuracy and reliability in project duration estimates, enhancing risk management and decision- making throughout project execution.